Close-up of rustic chess pieces on a wooden board, highlighting strategy and tactics.

Uncertainty Game

Designing wargames for what the models miss.

Recent Writing

umpire-designadjudicationwargame-mechanics

The Umpire Dilemma: When Human Adjudicators Break Your Wargame

How umpire bias and poor adjudication design can kill anomaly detection in wargames before it starts.

· 4 min read

Building Cassandra Players: How to Design Wargame Roles That Predict Correctly But Get Ignored

Millennium Challenge 2002: When Red Cell Innovation Broke the Rules

The Game You Can't Rehearse
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About

Uncertainty Game explores the design of wargames and simulations, with a focus on surfacing black swan events and anomalous phenomena that standard models miss. New writing published regularly.