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A beautifully lit chess game with red and white pieces, highlighting strategy and competition.

Uncertainty Game

Designing wargames for what the models miss.

Recent Writing

wargame designescalation dynamicsred-teaming

The Threshold Broker: Designing Wargames That Reveal Who Actually Controls Escalation

How to design wargames that expose the informal gatekeepers who set escalation thresholds, and what happens when they're wrong, absent, or captured.

· 5 min read

The Parallel Track: Designing Wargames That Run a Shadow Game the Players Don't Know About

The Broken Mirror: Designing Wargames That Surface Players' Flawed Self-Models

The Consensus Map: Designing Wargames That Expose What Players Agree On Without Knowing It

The Understudy Scenario: Designing Wargames That Stress-Test Decision-Making When the Second-Tier Takes Over

The Redundant Confirm: Designing Wargames That Expose False Consensus Among Players
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About

Uncertainty Game explores the design of wargames and simulations, with a focus on surfacing black swan events and anomalous phenomena that standard models miss. New writing published regularly.